NF had a large liquidation profile with close at dVAH on Thursday. After such liquidation observation was that swing low print chances were there with dVAH close.Sellers if wanted to get a move below again then they were expected to defend 18260 and rotate below 18160 for further follow through down. NF opened flat and gone for accepting above 18260 with clean balance in previous session selling imbalance zone.
After such acceptance above 18260 with balance in morning, against expectation it started drifting down with another liquidation move quickly towards 18160 then started rotating down as double disbn profile to get new low below PDL..Later left buying tail and closed at dPOC.
Above 18270 considered bullish for 18310/18340 which happened with a move only till 18318 at open session and could not get 18340. Failing to sustain above 18250 and back below 18200 expected to probe 18170/18140/18095 then 18065/18040. NF gone for this move in second session till 18050.
Pointers from the day :
4th day of one time frame down and closed at dPOC again leaving buying tail at low. If this tail got buyers, they need to rotate above POC early in the session for good follow through to test upper balance else retest of tail again possible.
It was double distribution long liquidation profile..Same observation as yesterday.Unless gap/drive tough to break below this DD profile. And when this profile gives up next large liquidation could follow.
After having clean acceptance of 21/10 selling imbalance, price instead of moving higher gone down..So, this upper disbn holds key for next session..Started accepting upper balance is bullish and rejection is to test buying tail/PDL zone again.
For next session,18160-18185 resistance zone..Above 18185 could move to 18220-18240 further bullish above 18240 for 18280/-18295 and quite bullish above 18310 for 18340/18370-18385 if sustains then 18420/18445/18495.
If fails to sustain above 18200 and back below 18160 could test 18125/18100 and quite weak below 18080 for 18040/18015/17980-17965 if sustains then 17920/17880-17865 possible.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
Weekly got clean extension from 17950 balance high and was running with gaps in last week..Observation was that inventory was too long with imbalance started from week low and having unfilled gaps in between. Such auction required more and more effort to keep this up but volumes were not that much stronger at close of last week. 18290 was considered support and staying above expected a move till 18500 and not expecting much from there without any pullback to test 18290 then 18150-18120.
NF opened the week higher again with large gap and shot up above 18500 but could not sustain and dropped via one time frame down to 18080 level slightly lower from projected 18120.Then shown a bounce which could not sustain and gone for another low to 18050 and closed below dVAL.
Now, NF printed 5th week of one time frame higher but closed below dVAL.With this close, they should defend VAL of week 18240-18280 band next week..Not able to move there or sustain above this band could rotate till 18080-18050 and breaking 18050 could get 17965/17860 quick and should offer bounce from either of this zone.If 17860-17840 band goes then 17700-17650 probe zone..
If we get a move above 18280 then looking for only one obj upside 18490 may be with a pause around 18360-380 zone for a pullback before a rally..If sustains 18490 then new ATH towards 18650 possible..If rejects around 18490 then could fall back to 18250/18150.
Monthly :
Oct was making inside profile at start of the month and then gone for trending profile.Now it negated trending move and gone for pullback..dVAH at 18260-18280 zone coinciding with weekly VAL zone..If not able to sustain above this then could be pulled down to test Sep high 17950 then 17865 dPOc of the month.If accepts above 18260-18280 then could continue the trend to get 18500/18650.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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