We had two observation with close from previous sessions..To avoid one time frame up stop, NF should get gap or drive..And any such move above short covering P profile of prev session, fresh leg should start. NF did got a gap and accepted for IB in gap zone but could not sustain and started accepting in prev value area to get probe of entire value area as well as PDL..It then could not sustain below PDL and left large tail to slowly move back to day high to print neutral extreme up day closing at day high..
Clues from the day's auction :
NF stopped one time frame up on daily time frame after 7 days. Expectation was to look for one time frame stop in 8-10 days and 8th day stopped it today.
NF registered outside day as well as neutral day.. Today's auction has left clear sign that fresh auction to emerge from here. After outside day and neutral day with poor value area, immediate reaction is to look for balance. Mentioned on weekly time frame view that not expecting anything above 14170 and maintaining same view as of now.. Not expecting any sustained rally as of now above 14170 and today's auction added conviction for this view.. To draw further probe zones, looking for a balance with some minor push here and there around 14170. This ST balance view negates if we hold entire day tomorrow with higher/higher overlap value saving 14130-14170 band. Sustaining above 14130-14170 with entire session tomorrow could call for next rally towards 14350/14600 in coming sessions. Context is just look for balance after outside day or look for fresh leg after outside day + neutral day combo.
On monthly time frame view, mentioned that 13975 could offer a good support and we got large buying tail from this zone today..This 13970-14020 band could act as good support zone for few sessions and ST weak if we start accepting in this band. As of now looking for mean reversion up move if we get a probe in this price zone..
NF has left a poor value area today due to that last couple of hours auction with 14100 pullback low..If we get a open inside range and unable to sustain well higher above 14170 then looking for repair of this value area for some time tomorrow.
Price wise, bullish above 14175 for 14200-14220 for next session if sustains 14220 then 14250 could be probed..
Failure to sustain below 14110 and move above 14150 could test PDH 14175 then 14200-14220. Failure to sustain below 14030 and back in value above 14090 could test 14130/14150-14175.
Failure to sustain above 14170 could test 14130 and thats good support and acceptance could test 14100-14085 band and weak below 14060 for 14030.Quite weak below 14010 for 13980/13950/13910.
Charts and data:
Detailed plan with refs to carry forward, trade hypos and nuances are available to members.
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