NF had a nice balanced auction profile yesterday with close at highs. Defending value was for trend and support was 14465-14440 band if held expected move was for PDH zone 14500-14520 then for 14550/14595. NF had open rej reverse holding low around 14450 support zone and gone for PDH probe by IB then got a extn and move up towards 14620 via double distribution auction and closed above dPOC.
Auction pointers from the day :
NF continuing one time frame up on daily for 6th day.
NF registered double distribution 4IB move trend day with dPOC up by close i.e, skew is with buyers at close with dPOC shift..They need to move away from this POC early in session to avoid repairing of extension singles of this profile.
Have been mentioning risk increasing on long side in last couple of reports..Today's auction also suggesting the same view due to double distribution profile with rotation factor of 13 and large extension singles between two distinct distribution today with 4IB move.Its nothing but emotional run auction wise..Two things could happen a) completely ditch this double distribution profile and go for fresh rally up b) Failing to create value above today's POC could go for filling this profile back first and depends on where it takes support in that fill could decide further rally up or resumption of balance to adjust inventory.
Mean reversion move expectation from 14500-14600 range is now negated now with this double distribution trend day profile and focus shifts to acceptance/rejection of the ref zones this profile has left now..Hold extension singles/handle of this profile and build value higher = further rally ; accept below extn singles/handle = balance before next course of auction.
14590-14570 support zone tomorrow to look for test of 14620 if accepts then 14650-14670 probe possible. Above 14675 could move towards 14710.
Failing to sustain above 14620 could make balance in 14620-14570 zone and weak below 14565 for filling extension singles till 14525 and quite weak below 14510 for test of 14480-14460 if sustains then could get 14400-14380.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with refs to carry forward, trade hypos and nuances are available to members.
Notes :
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