If NF accepts above yday P profile, fresh leg expected and gap or drive was expected to probe 12010/12050..And after accepting prev naked POC at 11930 next probe destination was for selling tail zone till 12010..NF had a open drive above P profile and gone for this 12010 probe in first session..Later, it has gone for tight auction with P again and then left weak/poor high at 12015..Poor high because of two period F and G periods marking same high and weak high because of same high around prev swing high 12014..
After this poor/weak high and started accepting in the open drive tail zone, liquidation started heavily..We had a poor value area yesterday as well as P profile..After having accepted value above P profile if price accepts back in P then entire P value could be probed.NF gone for this move below 11930 quick..And downside was mentioned weak below 11880 for 11830 and said quite weak below 11830 for 11765..NF made a first drop till 11821 then one balance and finally probed all the way down to 11765..
It was 3IB down to probe naked POC down at 11765 and then bounced from there..Had a sharp recovery to negate the intra day selloff by negating VWAP as well as extn handle at 11930 and closed around there.
NF has left many nuances from today's auction..
It was outside day - Clearing previous day high and low..When we are expecting balanced market, post outside day it tend to fill the outside day in next session via two way auction..so, this is on focus tomorrow..If price starts accepting above outside day with value then this view negates..
3IB down day - Inventory stretched that too covering entire range of last 3 sessions..Hence, probable outcome is balanced session next..
Neutral day but closed at center by negating intra day sell off by close itself..i.e, VWAP and extn handle 11930 of today sell off got negated intra day itself..This suggests no one gone home as winner today and both buyers and sellers are in neutral ground..Hence, more fight for inventory control could take place tomorrow with two way auction..
Naked POC 11765 rejected with double print tail till 11820..So, 11820-11800 good support now for tomorrow or next few sessions..Weak below this zone..
NF left a poor/weak high at 12016 as explained above..Now, NF got no secured high so likely to get one more high in few sessions..
After such a elongated auction, tough to draw clear tradeable scenarios for next session..So, play with small size tomorrow as expecting quick two way moves..Tentative scenarios could be,
Above 11950, close extn singles till 11975 then look for 11995-12030 probe..Bullish above 12050 for 12100/12150-12170.
Failing to sustain 11950 could do two way auction between 11950-11900-11820.If this happens all session then probable settlement zone tmw could be between 11900-11930.
Weak below 11800 for 11765/11730.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with refs to carry forward, trade hypos and nuances from the day are available to members.
Notes :
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