NF had a neutral auction on Friday and absence of OTF was observed with narrow range and volume. Such lack of conviction by sellers and buyers who failed to get a meaningful auction was expected to lead to initiative move in next session.NF had a initiative open drive right at open clearing small tail of previous session as well as PDL 11910..Below 11910 was considered weak for 11840 and then considered quite weak below 11820 for 11765..NF gone for double distribution trend day to get 11720 and closed around VAL..
Pointers from auction today :
NF has printed double distribution auction. As mentioned in commentary, this is a long liquidation move after a narrow range week and odds are lesser for reversal move. Context for such observation is,
a) due to structure of profile - DD ( not the way initiative move happens)
b) too stretched inventory all day esp E-G period ( sign of stuck longs liquidating than fresh supply coming in)
c) lower distribution getting wider and lengthier than upper distribution (sign of exhaustion after liquidation of most of longs and demand attempting to get in).
d) 3 IB down move after above average IB range (emotional than committed inventory).
NF has cleared prev week low and held around 11700 weekly and monthly support levels mentioned in weekend report. As long as holding around 11700, we could expect balance to continue. Below 11700 structural change esp if happens in the closing period of month due to P in making on monthly time frame.
NF has left double print tail at 11740 which is ref for auction tomorrow on downside and upside 11820 zone above extension handle. As mentioned above, some attempt from demand has happened in today's lower distribution and they need to accept above 11820 to get a follow through. Failing to do so and accepting below 11740 could lead to another down move.
Price wise, staying above 11740 probe is to test 11820-11840 if sustains then move towards 11890 POC-11910 tail (as price is in 45deg move away from POC) possible. Bullish above 11910 for 11950/12020.
Staying below 11850 could fill 11850-11780-11750 zone..Weak below 11730 for 11700-11690 and quite weak below 11690 for 11650/11610-11590.
If we get overlap around today's lower distribution or value above that distribution then day could turn out as bullish. If we build value below 11730 then day could remain bearish..
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with refs to carry forward, trade hypos and nuances from the day are available to members.
Notes :
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