With inventory gone short into Wednesday close, sellers was expected to hold 14790 in NF to avoid short squeeze. Failing to sustain above 14840 expected to test 14780 then 14740. NF opened higher but could not sustain and fell till 14760. Swing support was kept at 14760 and it was held post IB period and second half have seen short squeeze. Considered bullish above 14875 for 14920/14960 and NF gone for this probe into close by clearing IBH and closed around dPOC.
NF printed neutral extreme up day and as long as staying above 14880 could look for more short squeeze in next session.
14720 swing support was supposed to hold 14760 next to look for more higher and this has happened now with clear buying tail from 14760 and neutral extreme up auction with dPOC shift up.Buyers advantage into close for further follow through.
NF had a ledge 14810 and then extn singles at 14880 after 14760 tail hence swing support now moves from 14720 to this 14810 ledge zone.Clearing extension singles at 14880 is first sign of weakness and 14810 break is solid confirmation for weakness.
Price wise for next session, above 14990 probe is for 15030-15045 and quite bullish if accepts 15045 for 15075/15130-15160 if sustains then even 15220 possible. Any move down fails to sustain below 14900 and back above 14935 could also get 14990 and then remaining objective as mentioned above.
Below 14910 could get 14880/14850/14810 and quite weak below 14810 for 14780/14750/14720/14675-14650.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
2 weeks of one time frame down stopped and above 14700 probe was for 14900/15030/15150-15250 to travel back in the large balance in making. NF managed to get 14900 in a 3days truncated week and closed above 14900.Likely to complete the remaining obj as mentioned till 15150-15250. Ref for downside for the week is at 14810 to look for move back to 14650-14600/14500 and then 14300/14150/13950.
Monthly :
March month has ended as inside month profile and likely scearios are a) imbalance month or b) another overlap month for April into Mar profile..As long as holding above 14500-14600 band sideways to upside is the bias for Apr month after a inside month towards 15375/15600/15900.Below 14500 Apr could get imbalance down month to finally test the tail zone of Feb month towards 13950/13600.
Objectives mentioned above in weekly and monthly view are explained in below 60mins chart applying balance concept.
15430-15375 upside extreme and 14600-14500 was lower extreme for the larege balance we are seeing since post budget session. This is the large balance am considering after many weeks of balancing now..NF has tried twice to break below this balance and failed both times respectively at 14350 and 14250 zones..So, its twice look below balance and failure..As per balance rules, look below > fail > back in balance acceptance means probe is for POC of that balance then to other end of balance..
So, likely probe after this twice failure below balance low is now for 15100 roughly POC of this large balance then 15375-15430 zone..Do not expect them to take place in straight line..We may hit POC zone then one pullback and then might travel higher or might travel straight towards 15375 zone..Context is, once accepted in balance and accepted around POC then we should be aligned towards probe for other end of balance into 15375 zone.
Further probe is for 15600/15900 zone once 15375 is accepted..This again may not be straight and could see some pullback from 15600 zone and then could travel further higher..
Any failure around 15100 zone to accept further means could drop back to 14800 zone which should hold around else weak towards lower end of balance 14600-14500 and quite weak below next time if we break 14500 which could straight take us into 14000/13600.. Consider above chart for entire Apr series and we would track auction based on above chart going forward.
As I mentioned earlier in few posts, too much overlap is generally a sign of weakness.. Feb was trending month and now Mar has gone overlap in Feb value zone..So, to remain bullish buyers should go for extension higher above March range in Apr without any further overlap then we could consider Mar as just consolidation inside month balance after 5 months of strong one time frame up. If buyers do not get clean extn above 15375 and goes for another overlap month in Apr, then that could be quite bearish for the remaining months of the year.This is alternative scenario and primary bias for weekly/monthly is bullish as of now..
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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