NF had a stealth auction close on Thursday and observation was that upside probe yet to be completed..15150 was kept as support to scale PDH zone 15200 to get 15235/15260. NF had open auction which held above 15150 and then gone for probe of 15235 then gone for tight balance. Considering volume and stealth auction another observation was that sustained rally is unlikely and could visit back value area of stealth auction day later after testing upper end of balance in making.
NF after probing 15235 naked POC gone for tight balance and could not move higher which lead to liquidation break not only for probe of entire value area but to probe day low of stealth auction day. Move below 15150 was for 15090/15050 and NF made a move till 15070 and then bounced higher to close around VWAP zone.
Auction pointers from the day :
NF registered a neutral day by clearing IBH > fail > then clear IBL later in the day.
NF left a secured high as well as solid buying tail and VWAP of the day is pivot for next session..the side it sustains VWAP could go for clearing the secured end.
NF has left a outside day+neutral day = sign of existing balance coming to an end and next leg of auction could start from here.Sutaining the range is slow value skew trend day away from range and failing to sustain and falling back in range with value skew is for probe of entire day range.
Price wise for next session move above 15175 could get 15205 and bullish above 15205 for 15250-15265 if sustains then 15310/15340 probe possible.
Move below 15150 could get 15120-15100/15050 if sustains then 15000 probe possible.
Failing to sustain above 15250 and back below 15200 could get 15160/15150/15120-15100 again.
Weekly :
NF has ended last week with thicker distribution at top with clean extension above 14750 prev ATH. To remain bullish, expected NF should have a clean move in first 2days of week to scale 15100 for 15300. NF gone for this quick move towards 15265 in first 2days of week and then gone for nice balance all week.
NF have accepted trending budget week with follow through of nice balanced higher week now.Buyers in control on weekly time frame.This small nice balance now lead to next leg of auction on weekly i,e extending the trend or going for large balance with upside skew..15200 is pivot now for the coming week. Above 15200 in coming week probe is for 15340 as it could make a move away from this nice balance. Once this is done, 15200 becomes support to look for 15430 next. If next week shows higher volume days if we move above 15250 zone like hitting > 120L for consecutive days then outside chance for a move towards 15650 for next week but odds are less for this move as of now with volume from current week.So, not expecting anything above 15430 and looking for further balance once this 15340/15430 done.
15050 now becomes good weekly support and move below 15050 could probe 14930-14910 zone and that is next good support zone to bounce back higher.If sustains below 14910 then 14820/14750 probe possible.
Any move failing to scale/sustain above 15265 and falling below 15180 could move back to 15050-15020 and that should hold else could move towards 14930-14910 if sustains then 14820 and 14750 probe possible.
Context basically for a current week is to look for move away from current week nice balance and sustain once moved away..Failing to sustain is to probe back in the balanced week range fully and look away from balance week for follow through/rejection.
Monthly :
Feb started as strong trending month and expectation was for extended P profile and its on same process now. 15300 was kept as max upside to look for sideways and last week did that..Now support moves to 14900 on monthly on this P in making and could look for further sideways/uspide skew of this P profile holding above 14900. Any extn higher above 15300 with volume could make it as double distribution upside month.
To conclude, 15050 support for next week and bias is to scale 15200 to get 15340 then 15430 then some balance..If we have volume in 15300 zone then could stretch to 15700. Failing to sustain above 15200 could test back 15050 if sustains then 14910 possible and that should hold to push higher..If that goes then 14820/14750.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
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