NF had clean trend down day with 4IB move with clean control from sellers all day in last session.NF had a gap down below last swing low but could not sustain the gap and quickly pushed back in the range. Failing to sustain below 14160 and acceptance above 14220 expected to test 14310 then above 14320 probe was for 14440. NF gone for this entire move and closed around dPOC.
Auction pointers from the day :
NF didnt have a clean excess low when it marked 14213 swing low earlier..Today it has got clean excess buying tail at low..Excess = look beyond short term swing ref but rejected quickly and forming tail. Going forward this excess is ref for swing and if we start accepting 14220 then swing down again starts towards 14050-13950/13600..Till that holds, buyers are safe for coming sessions.
NF printed multi distribution trend day which negated second extn handle and VWAP of trend down day from 20th..If they clear 14450 next then entire supply of 20th auction is negated..But, still am not seeing this as reversal though we have excess at low..
Its due to the way the auction happened today which is multi disbn profile which normally happens due to emotional/event based inventory adjustment.Such profile rarely gets clean follow through and usually goes for balance.So, immediate bias as of now is to look for balance rather V shape upside rally.
Another reason is weekly still in one time frame down and lower overlap value in making..So, if 14450 accepts then could be on long side with some caution else could look for mean reversion down to repair today’s value area till 14280-14250 zone and then spend few sessions to make balance.
On such multi disbn profile, dPOC had skew at close towards higher quad which suggests probably the inventory which pushed the move all day made exit at top. If this is the case, then we may not see any acceptance above POC tmw and could look for mean reversion down..If POC gets accepted then could look for some squeeze higher earlier in the session and once done should not accept back below POC later in the session.
Price wise for next session, 14340 good support if holds then could move towards 14380/14430-14440.Quite bullish above 14455 for 14490-14510 if sustains then 14560-14580/14620 probe possible.
Failing to sustain above 14450 and back below 14400 could get 14365/14340 and weak below for 14300-14280/14250-14230 and quite weak below 14210 for 14160/14100/14060.
Failing to sustain above 14450 or below 14280 could go for two way auction all day filling today’s value area.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members.
Notes :
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