NF had a spike at close on 25th and last 3days were closing at dVAL which we observed as sign of control from sellers..Expectation was sellers should go for all day lower balance for further follow through..NF got a clean gap down below spike today sellers showing presence right at open. Probe was for 14080 below 14250 and NF gone for this in first session and then considered quite weak below 14075 for 13970 which happened via large liquidation towards close till 13930 and then NF had a bounce to close at dPOC.
Auction pointers from the day :
4th day of one time frame down and another close at lower quad..
Gap down and selling tail with lower value..
It has printed 3IB down day with large extn singles and last hour balance brought down the dPOC down.Normally, I would suggest such dPOC shift is favouring sellers if the auction is fresh..But, today we are at 4th day of one time frame down + 3IB down day with large extn singles and that balance in last hr pulled dPOC down..All this suggests, this dPOC shift down got a chance to push price higher to fill extn singles zone left today then to get dPOC zone early tomorrow if sellers fails to get follow through down from this profile..If sellers gets easy follow through again with such dPOC shift, then we could have another classic long liquidation day.
Have mentioned last two days that holding below 14500 we could get move towards 14250 and then quick probe to 14080/ 13970 low of current monthly P profile.This quick probe is done now..Except that dPOC shift towards close, we are yet to have confirmation that sellers done their probe fully..If they sustain below today's profile then next probe is for 13850/13750/13600 in coming sessions and this could happen faster again. 14130 negation for this view.
Price wise, above 14030 could look for 14065-14075 if sustains then 14130/14160-14170 possible..Quite bullish above 14180 for 14230/14265/14290-14310.
Failing to sutain above 14030 could fall back to 13980 if sustains then 13940/13910 probe possible..Below 13895 could move to 13850/13825-13810.
Charts and data:
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members.
Notes :
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