NF had a normal day on Thu and expected imbalance after such day..Bias was to have mean reversion upside as long as no drive/imbalance down move after having such back to back balanced sessions not having clean range extn. NF had a gap up and against expectation/bias started moving down back in last session value early in the day via open test drive down,delivered that drive/imbalance move on downside. Buyers expected to hold 18680-18650 else considered weakness for 18580/18550.NF gone for probe till 18515 then closed below dPOC.
It was triple distribution trend down day.
4IB range down day.
Outside day and 6th day of one time frame down now.
Auction wise structure i.e, outside day + triple distribution day + 4IB range + size of extension singles all suggesting clear inventory adjustment break NF had done on Friday...If supply is committed and its not a IAB then they need to hold extension handles of the day and should go for value lower in coming sessions..Else, looking for balance back to refill this day extn singles for a session or two then might start moving up towards upper quad of monthly range.
Buyers need to defend 18540 in next session to look for 18630-18650 then could have some balance..And later if sustains there means could move higher towards 18720-18740. Sellers need to hold 18630-18650 and push lower to test 18550-18540 and sustains further means more weakness towards 18480 and below.
Swing view now, Long above 18590 with 18480 negation for 18650/18720 and once moves there negation can be moved to 18510. Swing short prefer to wait for a session or two to look for acceptance below 18540 then could draw levels.
Weekly :
NF swiped last week low this week..Not accepting below 18500 early in the week, looking for balance with a move back to 18650/18720-18740..Once sustains 18740 possible to get 18840/18910-18940 then could rotate down..
Weakness if sustains 18500 to get 18420-18380 then bounce back higher possible and below 18380 acceptance could drag it to 18220/18150/18050.
Monthly :
Monthly after clean balance now last session looked below..They need to pullback higher back above 18650 to continue balance in the zone traded since start of month with a move back to 18840/18940 then later 19200 possible.. Move below 18500 early in the week could call for double distribution down month with move towards 18400/18220/18050. As said earlier, below 18000 reversal on monthly time frame.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Notes :
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