NF confirmed ST excess at 17810 with 3IB down close on Thursday. Focus was with spike and observation was that auction was incomplete with Thursady spike close. Failing to scale above 17580 and move below 17550 probe was for 17490 and NF gone for this early in session then closed at dPOC after all day balance on Friday.
Pointers from the day :
ST excess now gone for second day of lower value. Sellers in control still.
No secured low and left poor low at 17475..Till this gets cleared long side is risky.
It was clean balanced profile on Friday. Could look for imbalance next. With value in spike and poor low, more downside expected as mentioned in closing commentary.
NF started accepting in budget day value now and no sign of buying emerging. As mentioned in lasst report, same 17450 ref going forward downside..No defense around there means more move downside to test event day tail zone possible..If this zone defends and pushes back in balanced profile value, then could look for entire value area probe.
Failing to scale above 17540 and back below 17500 could test 17460 if sustains then 17420-17400 possible. Quiter weak below 17380 for 17350/17320/17280/17240-17220 if sustains then 17100-17050 possible.
Failing to stay below 17460 could test 17540 if accepts then 17570/17610 possible and bullish above 17620 for 17650/17680-17690/17720-17740. If sustains 17750 then 17790/17820/17860 probe.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
Above 17400 expected probe for 17550-600 and that zone expected to reject else 17750/17950 expected for the week. NF moved till 17800 and pulling back now.
Its triple distribution weekly profile now with wide POC at 17565. Staying below 17565-17600 current week expecting to test 17450-17400 and that should bounce it back to 17565-17600 if accepts then 17750-17800 possible to fill back triple distribution week if sustains further then 17950/18100 probe possible upside. If accepts 17400 then clean move possibe downside towards 17250 which should bounce else 17100-17050 and thats very good support zone next to look for bounce.
Monthly :
Jan has been failed trend month i.e, upside one way in first half then second half failed such trending move and closed below VAL zone..After such month now odds for Feb for inside overlap month to fill the Jan failed trend month.. So, could look for two way auction than one way directional move in coming month.17050 solid support and 17600 pivot and upside 17950/18100 for this view of two way auction month to take place.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly :
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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