NF had a short covering auction last session with dPOC skew close..Buyers expected to stay away from P profile else overlap session session expected with prev session value area. NF got a gap but hardly stayed above PDH and gone for overlap in yday value area all day then closed with minor spike down at low. Hypo D in IB period paid from 18080 to 18050 then missed 18020 marginally..Hypo C above 18125 whipped at open but later made a move to obj 18165-18175 then dropped.
Auction recap from the day :
After a P profile yday, we have seen long liquidation b profile today..Sign of balance emerging.
Buyers faced exhaustion today and left poor high at top and gone for liquidation at close..As mentioned in commentary at close, inventory was weak at close to look for more probe downside.Lot of inventory shuffle happened around 18075 today and buyers need to regain control of this zone next..Failing to do so and staying below this b profile could lead to more liquidation..
Though not a neutral day by text book definition, auction and context wise almost a neutral day..So, vwap 18075 becomes ref again..Staying below this in first session = weak ; accept = strength.
Swing wise, holding 18050 probe to 18200 expected and thats marked as res zone..NF showing exhaustion at top and gave up 18050 today..That context of risk on long side started playing out today..After today's auction still same view as said yday that without testing/filling back large LVN zone below 17925 upside still risky..
Charts,data & Hypos :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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