NF had a inside day with FA at top from RBI day scene of crime zone on Thursday suggesting exhaustion/rejection there at SOC. With one time frame down, sellers had control all session and closed at low that day. Post such inside day imbalance next was expectation. NF got a large gap down and all day held gap with lower value but closed at dVAH on Friday.
Pointers from Friday's auction :
NF had a large gap down and lower value day with nice balanced profile.Again, imbalance next possible.
It left a clean poor low at 16350 zone..After such poor low, immediate reaction is to look for clearing weak shorts which possibily done by close with clearing IBH and then close at dVAH.. Once this cleaning of weak shorts done, they could go for clearing such poor low to get secured low..
After having poor low the bounce clearing IBH got quick rejection and probe of IBL confirmed failed auction at top. This FA at top immediate ref upside..Failing to sustain above this FA with value and clearing VWAP or poor low could lead to next liquidation move..If creates value above FA then more short squeeze to fill the overhead gap zone and repair of poor low can wait for a session or two then..But, swing longs carry a risk incase of any upmove as long as this poor low at 16350 not cleared.
Swing obj next zone 16400 tagged now and 16200/16050/15900 remains open.. 16400 was the zone marked for some pause/minor bounce before getting 16200 and below. With this poor low at 16350, now any bounce could be watched from sidelines and better to initiate shorts again on any rise with negation at 16700..Anything above 16650 with value only now confirms reversal so with this negation of 16700 any bounce could be used to short till we get clear low below 16350 atleast.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
Weekly after 2weeks of overlap expected sm more fill and then holding below 17200 expected 16800 then 16600/16400/16200 for the downside probe.NF held only a day in balance this week and gone for downside move till 16400.
Now 4th week of one time frame down with dPOC skew down at close. That two days volume from 04th and 05th last week during RBI with good tail at top then FA a top, not yet completed their probe..So,as long as no acceptance clearly above 16650, looking for pressure with buyers to go for one more leg of liquidation this week to clear poor low at 16350 and get 16250-16200 extreme case 16050/15900 levels then could see a sharp bounce higher towards 16650..
Above 16700 clean move possible to 16850 and this should rotate down again..If sustains 16850-16875 then 16980/17050/17150 probe possible.
Monthly :
Monthly after leaving clear DD down long liquidation profile in Apr, getting follow through in May profile now with more liquidation. Observation was that if May starts with value on weekly below 16800 then bearish outcome and its on now.. Obj marked for May was 16400/16200-16050/15600.. First one done. 16865 first quite strong res now and 17150 second strong res for May..
Staying below 16865 weakness continues and if that zone accepts then could look bell balance in May.If such bell profile happens then weakness could flow further in next month too.Reversal on monthly as of now only above 17150 (that large volume bar day from 04/05),if daily value gets created to get 17350/17480-17520.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly :
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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