NF had narrow range session on Thursday after rejecting from good swing ref then closed at low with auction incomplete. Staying below 17340 expected liquidation towards 17250/17220. NF had a gap down then attempt to rally higher into value area failed and kept the firt session lower for liquidation move to get 17220..Then second session got tail at low to move back to day high then closed at dVAH.
NF left a buying tail at low.
It printed lower value session but closed at dVAH..As mentioned in closing commentary, that move in last hr to day high zone was weak with data on lower value day..So, odds higher for a move back to buying tail zone early in session if accepts there then liquidation possible into old 6days balance.
Buyers need to sustain above 17280 to get a move higher towards 17400 in next session.
Swing short suggested below 17250 acceptance with 17340 negation got negated at close..As discussed, no long view at close of yday and its mostly whip.Same view of swing short below 17250 again with same 17340 negation to move towards 17150/17050/16975. Swing long view can wait now.
Larger view :
Weekly :
NF printed double distribution profile this week with upper balance skewed than thin lower distribution with wide POC at 17290..So, buyers this week should defend 17250-17280 to rotate higher in upper distribution..Failing to do so clean move back down possible to test lower distrbution high 17100 if accepts there then move towards 16975-16940..Thats good support zone to rotate higher for 17100/17200/17280-17300..If sustains then 17400-17450.
Quite weak if sustains below 16940 for 16820/16750 then bounce again possible from there back to 16900/17050-17100/17200. Value below 16740 could push towards 16660/16500-16450 straight.
Monthly :
Sep monthly profile closed as double distribution down profile with clean extension handle at 17450. This ref was markes as solid resistance for Oct.Staying below this, expected overlap in Sep lower distribution then range extension down.Reason to look for range extension down in October is, July month had good spike up close and now Sep has started accepting that spike zone which was considered as bearish sign on monthly structure.So, more rotation in early october in that Sep lower distribution means higher odds for range extension down further from lower distribution.
Now, sofar in October NF following above said auction..Moved down towards lower disbn end of Sep then pushed higher to upper end of that distribution and rejected at monthly extn handle at 17450 and looking down as of now..If we stay below 17300 dPOC of month now 17150-17100 probe if sustains there then more chop and travel down further towards 16850/16750 and later in to July value area to get 16450.
Staying above 17300 could get 17450 and above that easy move back to 17600/17850.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Notes :
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