NF had neutral day with sellers from 18075 still ruling the auction by rejecting the upmove on Thursday.It was 2nd day of one time frame down and observation was that low of that day was not convincing for swing low hence one more low expected in next session.We also had poor value area..NF had overlap in first session to repair that poor value area and in the process also printed new low then could not sustain lower and gone for PDH then closed at dVAH..Hypo A and part of hypo B played out fully from 17770 to 17920+.
Pointers from last session auction :
NF failed to stay below PDL and left failed auction at low.Good swing reversal that was as it has stopped one time frame down move of last few sessions.
It was another neutral day and buyers emerged as winners with dPOC skew and close at dVAH.Buyers job next is not to accept below POC or worst case VWAP of the day and should seek for quick move higher away from this profile as it was outside day too.
It was triple distribution day..Failure to stay higher could go for overlap and repair of upper quad of this profile.
As mentioned earlier, good signs we are now having for balance to happen for few sessions..17600-18250 broad range roughly now for next few sessions to spend time and balance. This is due to the context of two way quick imbalance we just had at start of the month..With this outside day, odds are higher for balance to happen.
Much discussed large LVN zone of 17650-17925 after 04/04 auction, now got closed fully..And, NF got FA exactly from that 17650 zone.Mechanical swing low but for time being its good swing low for few sessions and good odds we could revisit that later..As I have been mentioning many times in our discussions, 2022 could see ref zones to be revisited via mean reversion moves in smaller as well as large time frame..
Mentioned in last report that as well as in commentary that 17650-17690 is important ref zone and buyers should hold and scale above 17850 to get 17970/18075 with negation 17750. This got activated now in last session and almost reached first obj..Negation still same 17750 now and once 17970 first obj met could move negation to 17840. Swing shorts can wait.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
NF had triple distribution week closing at high with buyers in control at end of last week.It was outside week too hence expected buyers should move away in the week to get 17840/17950 then pullback expected to 17650-17600 zone or max extreme move expected towards 18100-18200 band.Was and not seeing anything above this band. NF gone for this extreme move in first two days and printed 18174 as high then pulled back all week towards 17650 zone.
Now current week has ended as balanced week with close around dPOC of the week and this week range requires a fill.To start the week, 17750-17800 good support band to get 17970-18020 band if sustains then 18100/18200-18240 possible and not expecting much of rally but again pullback to 17900/17800-17750 possible..If 17750 goes means 17650/17580-17550 probe possible and anything below 17550 could get 17425/17350 quick. Upside if sustains 18240 then 18335/18420 probe possible next.
Monthly :
As long as 17425 is held, Apr was expected to move up towards 17840/17950/18100-18200 zone then expected to come down for balance.This is on now in Apr as of first week...As mentioned last week, since we moved above 17800, now support can be moved to 17550. As long as that 17550 holds now could look for wide balance till 18200-240 roughly in two way auction. Below 17550 solid reversal possible towards 17350-300 to start with then 16850/16400/16050..Above 18240 could stretch till 18350-400 then could come down again.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly :
Data & Hypos :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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