NF had two days nice balance and expectation was imbalance upside holding 15710 as swing support. For todays session holding 15740-15760 band expected new high at 15810. NF in morning session had a drive down which cleared 15740 marignally but failed to sustain the drive and gone to print 15810 later in the day.
After tight range at top, failed to sustain 15810 and started accepting back in two days balance.Below 15740 probe was for 15690 and then 15590 and NF almost did this entire probe with low of 15594.
Auction recap :
NF failed to sustain above two days balance and left FA at top. Clear failure from buyers.
It was outside day failing to sustain above PDH and gone below PDL as well as last 4 days low. Likely to bring in more chop.
It was neurtal day with 3IB down move.Sellers need to hold below 15720 tomorrow and should look for probe below 15625.Accepting above 15720 confirms today's auction was just long liquidation of buyers from last 3days.
Swing wise 15710 kept as support which got negated today. Below 15710 probe down was for 15590/15520 and got the first obj now.Negation for swing now at 15750 if that goes then view neutral.
For next session, 15685 immedaiate resistance and NF should stay below this..Above 15685 could test 15710/15735-15745..Further bullish above 15755 for 15780-15790 if sustains then 15835 probe possible.
If fails to sustain above 15740 then could test 15700 and below 15700 could move to 15670/15640-15630 and quite weak below 15620 for 15590/15550/15525/15500-15490.
Important nuance : It was combination of neutral day + outside day + 3IB day.. Next session odds are quite higher for two way volatile auction if we accept 15700-15720 band..Context is, as long as staying below this band, today's supply could rule the auction but if this band accepts means then its only long liquidation hence more fight will happen for inventory and to fill this profile. Straight move may not happen right away and they will try to rotate as much as possible before getting a clean move after such whip day.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
コメント