NF had narrow range low volume in last session and to avoid repair of weak structure buyers had to get early follow thorugh. NF got another clean gap up day. 15010 and then 15045 were probe zone. NF with tight range day got 15015 and could not sustain higher and closed at dPOC.
Auction pointers from the day :
NF printed 3rd day of one time frame up.
Second consecutive day of quite a narrow range and low volume day..Range and volume of the day are lowest of this year.
NF had a second day of gap up and gap remains unfilled.
Observation after last few days auction was that buyers are tiring with underlying weak structure.Following are some of weak structure from last few sessions.
a) Intra supports comes at visual ref – quite mechanical – OTF not backiing up this move.
b) Repeating gaussian balance profiles in one time frame up – nice balanced profiles are mostly sign of indecisive or less committed inventory in action. i.e, mostly locals
c) Low volume and narrow range days increasing – sign of exhaustion and weak inventory is being allowed to built.
d) Anomalies and unfinished job in profile structures increasing every day – incomplete auction
Today auction also adding risk to this rally.Today too NF has shown weak lows and couple of outside bars etc in a narrow range day which are sign that only weak longs are adding up. Only thing saving them is no sign of supply..But with such auction we dont need supply to stop and reverse this market but own weight of weak longs itself enough to stop this rally abruptly with liquidation move.
As an aleternate view, one thing that can still help buyers is, some solid demand via gap/drive if happens then it could ignore all this weak structure and could start a fresh rally..Till that happens, risk is attached with longs which are being built in last 3-4 sessions.
Swing wise holding 14770 expected push higher above 14950 and NF on same now. Now swing ref shifts to 14900 and next rally can start above 15045. Below 14900 could see some downskew towards 14770 and that should hold else could get 14610-14550 and negation for this swing view below 14900 is 15045.
For next session, 14965 is support and holding this could test 15015 and bullish above 15015 for 15045/15075 if sustains then quite bullish for 15130-15160. If fails to sustain below 14930 and accepts above 14980 then could get 15015 and all other probe as mentioned above.
Weak below 14965 for 14930/14900-14890/14865/14840 if sustains then could get 14795/14770 and quite weak below 14770 for 14730/14680/14650/14610.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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