NF had a neutral extreme down day with spike close in last session. Spike rules were in focus and then tail at low from 09/05. Observation was that holding tail zone could move higher and more strength above 16325.. If 16210-16190 band goes means liquidation down. NF had a drive above spike high but could not sustain 16325 and turned into open test drive down clearing 16190 early in the session which lead to strong liquidation move down..Then second session halted the move and got nice pullback to dVAH and closed above dPOC.
Auction recap :
NF left a clean 3-1-3 profile. i.e, large tail zone both ends with good balance inside.. Effort from buyers failed the first session trend day and resulted in such 3-1-3 profile. As mentioned in commentary, close was having edge with buyers due to dPOC shift then close above dPOC..They have to defend around 16150 next and move into upper tail zone and build value to get move higher..
Failing to do so, could get overlap profile next to fill today's value area. Rule of 3-1-3 profile is, sustain value area = accept in tail zone and move higher ; fail to sustain in tail zone and accept in value area = probe back in value area.
Acceptance below today's buying tail calls for good liquidation again.
Though not a clean swing low, we got decent swing low today..And, upside now we have series of mechanical rejection highs..16417 VWAP / 16410 Poor high / 16315 again VWAP rejection last 3 days..So, holding this buying tail of today, NF could next try to clear all above mechnical rej zones then could decide rally or balance again. And, this swing low not a clean one to stay for long time and once rally or balance done could get more downside..
Swing obj next one 16050 done now. 15900 still remains open. Last 3days balance resolved lower but closed inside that balance now ( 16417-16150 was range of balance).So, considering balance rules (to get to mean 16325 and other end of balance 16420 possibility) now negation for swing could move to 16280. If this goes, swing short view can wait.. Swing long now above 16280 with 16150 negation for 16440 (once get there move negation to 16300) for 16540/16650.
Charts & data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
Comentarios