NF left a selling tail in last session.Acceptance in that expected to visit balance high zone again.Above 16310 probe was for 16345-16365 and NF gone for this probe via slow trend day and closed at high marking new ATH.
Pointers from the day :
NF printed slow trend day with buying tail and higher value and closed at high.
Marking new ATH today price wise might be bullish but not context wise. NF having following poor structure.
a) As mentioned yday, last session low 16185 is weak as its in same zone of 04th and 09th Aug.
b) Yesterday late rally took off with mechanical support and left poor structure unrepaired.
c) Today though it was slow trend day,range was smaller and trend move got stopped clearly in K period but still managed to get small rally and closed as trend day at high. This is not the way committed buyers make the move and this usually happens to take care of inventory adjustment only for time being.
d) Today move got more mechanical support than yesterday i.e, every alternate period today took mechanical support and managed to close at day high.Left poor value area too.Again not a typical committed buyers act.
e) Lowest volume in recent times with 65% of volume than 10days average with rotation factor at 13 on such lower range day than average.
With above factors, still maintaing same stance of what mentioned yesterday that risk is on long side. To negate all above pointers of poor structure, buyers should show strength early in the session with drive/gap to move away from this profile and sustain higher all session.Then we could ignore all above factors and could focus on strength of new inventory coming in. Failing to do so, NF could correct most of last two days auction.
We have been discussing about detoriating MO reading last two days. This got cooled off to -33 from -74 yesterday and still buyers not out of woods with this reading and expecting more of balance only for some more cooloff in this reading. so,maintaining same view of what mentioned yesterday i.e, // This suggests normally either strong rally or time wise correction further i.e, more balanced market for this MO to cool off..Am biased for time correction i.e, balance than rally.After 09th auction, marked on daily time frame bias as “neutral” with 16100-16400 range..And, NF is filling this range now.Not expecting upside anyhting more than 16400. If we move higher then 16350-16400 band could send it back down inside composite on swing wise..As long as that band stays,looking for one dash down to get 16100 mark to close gap as well as test the trend day buyers from 03 Aug..This is the bias based on structure and auction happening now.Accepting above 16400 opens up 16550-16600 with negation at 16325//
Levels wise for next session above 16370 could get 16395-16410 if sustains then 16450 possible.
If fails to sustain below 16300 and back above 16345 could get 16370/16395-16410.
Failing to sustain above 16390 and back below 16340 could test 16310 and weak below 16310 for 16270/16240/16210-16200 and quite weak below 16185 for 16160/16130/16100/16060.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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