NF had gap and higher value with stretched second session yesterday. Buyers if still committed then expected them to go for higher value all session without entering back in value area. NF had a another clean gap and held gap in tight OAOR and then spiked up for closing at high. Above 18205 probe was for 18235/18255/18310..With gap all this done.
Auction recap :
Gap up. Back to back gap days holding gap and moved higher.
6th day of one time frame up on daily.
Similar story of yesterday i.e, it was clean double distribution trend day in first session then it failed the trend day and still managed to push higher to close at high with spike. Same observation that this is now getting further emotional and stretched..Buyers have to again make sure they keep the ammo steady without allowing probe back into value area to continue the upmove. As long as they do so, melt up can continue with risk attached to long side now.
It has got spike today and spike rules apply for next session. 18335-18365 spike zone..Accept above this = quite bullish ; Accept below this zone = weakness ;
Mentioned yesterday that move above 18150 opened up next obj for swing at 18290-18310 then 18450-18500. 18310 done today and remaining is pending with negation at 18290 now.
For next session,bullish above 18365 for 18390-18410/18435 is sustains then 18470/18500 possible.
Failing to sustain above 18400 and back below 18350 could get 18310 and weak below 18300 for 18265/18240/18205-18190 and quite weak below 18170 for 18145/18120/18095.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
NF had 4 weeks of overlap and buyers expected to get early follow through for bullish scenario.. 17850 marked as support to focus for the week with context explained. They started the week with 17860 low and gone higher early in the week. Holding 17850 and moving above 17940 probe was for 18020-18050 then 18150. They stalled at 18050 and pulled down and held 17850 again to move towards next obj 18150 and then shot up higher till 18350 now.
Weekly now got clean extension from 17950 balance high and running with gaps this week..Inventory is too long now with imbalance started from week low and having unfilled gaps in between. Such auction requires more and more effort to keep this up but volumes are not that much stronger as of now.
18290 support for the coming week.Staying above this could extend till 18500 and not expecting much from here without any pullback to test 18290 if gives up then 18150-18120 probe possible which should bounce back..If accepts 18100 then 18000-17950 probe possible. This move from 18290 to 18150-18120 could happen quick as these are zones from back to back failed trend days.
If buyers decide to continue the melt up then some pause around 18500 if creates value higher then 18700/18950 next objective.
Monthly :
Oct was making inside profile. Sustaining previous ATH 17950 further expected to get 18050/18150 then some balance then 18500 expected. 18050 given a pullback and now moving towards 18500. As mentioned above, 18290 is support to get 18500.If stays above 18500 for a day then 18700/18950 opens up for the month.Support for monthly now moves to 17950.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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