RK
- Oct 16, 2022
- 3 min read

Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -14Oct'22

NF had a 5th day of one time frame down close on Thursday and observation was downmove to unfold holding below 17120..What NF has done is ditching all such bearish bias and had a complete U turn of large gap up engulfing 5days range.But failed to sustain above IBH after gap up and open auction and closed as neutral extreme down day.

NF had a gap up and held the gap till close despite weak close with NE down day.

Left failed auction at top.

Price moved 45 degree away from wide POC due to NE down move in short time in closing hours..For next session, two scenarios a) fails to build lower below PDL and accepting back in closing hour imbalance = move back to POC zone b) sustain below imbalance of closing session and bring down value and once gets value lower no push back higher but get follow through down further.

16950 zone expected to deliver clean 400-500 points move which was delivered in a unexpected way of large gap upside..This was not tradeable and still adding pain to directional systems which suggests odds increasing for big directional move around the corner on weekly/monthly time frame.

For next session, 17220 ref for buyers to accept to move back to POC zone 17300 then test FA at high 17350. Staying below 17220 weak to travel down in gap zone.If this down move happens then not expecting big move but again could have few days of overlap balanced sessions..Context is, 5days of one time frame down stopped with engulfing move which gets another whip downside means, higher chances to get minus development back higher hence chop in the range of Oct still possible.

Swing short view got a negation with large gap above 17120 and goes to neutral mode now..16900-17400 balance is view and better to wait for few sessions to look for swing move.

Larger view :

Weekly :

NF left double distribution weekly profile last week with upper balance skewed than thin lower distribution with wide POC..So, buyers failing to sustain above 17250-17280 to rotate higher in upper distribution probe was marked for 17100 if accepts there then move towards 16975-16940 expected and that zone marked as good support zone to rotate higher for 17200/17280-17300..If sustains then 17400-17450 expected.. NF done this two way travel this week..Stayed below 17280 to start the week and met 16940 then bounced towards 17350.

Inside week and 3 weeks of overlap now…Considering composite structure, another non directional overlap week auction possible in 16900-17400 range.Week has closed at dVAH. Need to sustain above 17150 VAH zone to get back to 17300-17350 if fails there then rotation back to 17100/17050/16950 possible..If starts the week below 17150 then 17050 test which is good support to push back to 17150-17200/17300-17350..Fails to do so could drag back to 16950-16900 band and again expecting that to push back to 17150-17200/17300-17350..Below 16900 possible to get 16820/16750 if doesnt hold then 16650/16520/16450/16250 possible as imbalance move.

17350 if sustains higher then easy move to 17430-17450/17600/17800. Daily value above 17350 may not have much of resistance while going up. But this need to take place early in the week else higher odds for overlap week as said above.

Monthly :

October NF still auctioning below Sep extn handle zone of 17450 and doing two way value building with lower value on monthly.. Range is still lower and higher odds there for Oct to get range extn away from this balance now. 17350 dVAH and 17050 dVAL for the monthly now..Staying below 17300 expected probe towards 16850/16750 amid chop and this got truncated at 16930 and bounced back above 17300. Monthly profile structure also suggesting possible most of next week to stay in developing value of month and may be last week of Oct could get range extension from current balance.

Had a clear bias for downside range extension for Oct from this balance based on context of July spike filling as well as lower disbn of Sep being acceptaed..Now this move back to 17350 in monthly profile leaving no clue which side month is going to get range extension away from the balance being made. Need to wait for a week.

Charts :

Daily