NF had a outside day and 5IB liquidation + trend day down day on Thursday session with higher than average volume closing at low with dPOC skew down.Observation was that auction was incomplete at close and sellers had edge. As not much of support below 15400 expected 15200/14980 next.
NF had another open drive down move on Friday and marked 15210 low then bounced to fail the drive..And then all day gone for two way balance inside IB range..It was normal day as well as 3-1-3 profile. Pause in auction and possible for imbalance move next.
Some inventory shift is seen around 15260 and then held that zone during intra auction downmove which finally pushed for close at dVAH..This inventory shift and close suggests buyers trying to save the auction.15240-15260 support for them to push and clear tail at top above 15400 to get upside move..Failing to sustain above that selling tail and back in value area could fill value area and go for another overlap session..Acceptance below 15240 could call for more liquidation next towards 15150/15090/14980/14920.
Swing view of 14980-950 obj next still open..15480-15550 minor res upside now and 15700-15750 major resistance now to look for exhaustion/rejection if we see upside move to rotate down for balance/skew down. Though we have a buying tail with clear secured low, need to wait and see if any upmove comes to call for reversal..As of now, expecting only a relief rally if at all move up happens and still looking for swing move to happen to above said obj zone.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
NF for the week printed solid double distribution profile with trend day as extn from upper disbn. Quite tough to clear that trend day extn now without large balance downside.They need to gather lot of strength to clear that day’s auction.So, immediate reversal upside lesser chance.Two ways we could look for current week to establish auction a) more overlap in lower distribution of current week then decide for accepting above 15700-15750 zone for reversal or b) small overlap in lower distribution of this week then go for another extension down towards 14980/14850. Am biased for scenario b may be after small relief rally > come down so we get that overlap in current week lower disbn > then extend down further..
Monthly :
Monthly as closed in lower disbn of May last week suggested neutral bearish bias and expected 15900 then that goes means 15400 was marked as final obj for June..15900 happened quick via gap then also moved to 15400 and well below also now so early, leaving triple disbn month now. Solid liquidation month is under progress.. Bias from here is to hold second disbn i.e, well below 15700-15750 mark and rotate down for third distribution to take place further then decide more downside or b profile..Either way now this monthly structure confirms buyers above 15750 swing low may not get exit easy. Downside remains open till 14950/14700-14600 if this profile gets more liquidation as odds are there for elongated profile on monthly structure with volume happening last two sessions.
To conclude, for the coming week, any bounce means should happen holding 15240 and upside might face exhaustion in 15480-15550 band or 15700-15750 band to rotate down. Below 15240 odds increase for more liquidation for 15K break then decide further.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
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