NF had another 3-1-3 profile with close below dVAL on Thursday. Observations was that distribution happened at upper quad and tail from Wednesday holding control hence sellers got edge to look for drive/gap down. NF had a lower open but could not clear PDL and left weak low then gone for open auction in the range, then moved up slower in mid session only to find exhaustion at top and then moved down to dVAL for close again to deliver 3rd day of overlap profile.
Failing to sustain below 17260 and accepting 17320 expected to get 17350-17370 which whipped with marginal test above 17320 during IB then later probed higher to probe zone 17370..Failing to scale/stay above 17360 expected to drop to 17290 then considered weak below that for 17250 which happened in last hrs then closed around dPOC.
Pointers from the day :
NF left a inside day..Likely to get imbalance in next session.
NF printed weak low at PDL and last 3days its becoming cluster low at large extn singles zone, with underlying structure weak till that 17125 as mentioned after 15/02 rally.
Below is the chart of last 3days composite..That selling tail fom 16/02 remained firm and last 2days move higher got sold off to close at lower quad both session..As mentioned in commentary at closing, 3days of rise and closing at lower quad all three days + good volume all days + now with three days composite closing at dVAL of such composite on Friday means, evidence that 3days composite got distribution hence gap down/drive down is a probable outcome..
If they could not sustain and move down or after having rejection from lower levels and accepting this 3days composite value means, clean value area probe back to VAH of this composite..
With wide POC at 17360 for the week, mentioned that rally higher chances are less and we again saw the exhaustion above that zone on Friday and closed lower. So holding below this wide POC zone 17360-17380 now, path of least resistance is downside.
For next session, 17330 resistance..Above that 17330 could get 17370-17390.Above 17400 could get 17435-17450 if sustains then 17490/17500/17550 probe possible.Failing to stay below 17180 and back above 17280 could move to 17325/17370/17410-17420/17450.
If fails to scale/stay above 17330 could drop to 17250/17225 and weak below that for 17180-17165/17125-17110.Quite weak below 17100 for 17070/17030/16980/16950 if sustains then 16910-16895 possible.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
Shared weekly composite of 17800-16850 in last week report with clean 3 week of overlap.Expectation was to have another week or two within this large balance as some more filling expeted to make this weekly composite more gaussian. NF had a large gap down to start this week and saved 17800 and bounced higher and had two way auction to remain in this range within weekly composite.
Now its 4 weeks of clean balance with nice bell composite with quite a wide POC at 17360. Updated chart below.
Unless we get gap up/drive from this 17360 POC zone for the week, upside rally is tough from such wide POC formation esp with daily structure of tail + distribution + close at daily composite lower quad and weak cluster low around 17220-17240. So for the week probable outcome is to look downside again then come back to this wide POC , take a pause, then rally higher if downside shows no follow through below large balance..Or if reaches balance low and accepts then look for imbalance downside for look below balance.
So, hypos for the week is staying below 17360-17400 zone, look for 17125/17050 probe then bounce back to 17250/17360/17450.If accepts 17050 then 16950/16850 then look for bounce to 17050/17125/17250/17360 if sustains then 17450-17490/17550/17640. Above 17640 clean move to 17800-17900.
If sustains below 16850 then clean move to 16600/16450 as imbalance down week.
Monthly :
Feb was marked for inside overlap month to fill the Jan profile with two way auction than one way directional move in Feb. 16850 lower end mark was swiped marginally last week and bounced back. 17050 good support for monthly close and weakness below that to test lower end 16850 again and goes means imbalance down close for the month possible..17360 now becomes pivot for the month close..Not able to push down could revert back to this pivot and could settle around..If we get daily value fully above 17360 then could rally to 17600 zone for close.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly :
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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