NF had a short covering profile with very low volume in last session.It had a weak high at 18350 and buyers expected to get gap/drive after such short covering profile if they wanted a follow through.NF had a open around PDH and got repaired that weak high but failed to sustain and gone for repairing previous 3-1-3 profile value in IB period. Sustaining 18350 was for 18385 which could not materialise.
Considered weak below 18260 for 18225/18190/18165 which got probed till 18200 then all day made a slow bounce to test morning tail. Failed to sustain in the tail and again fell below 18260 to complete all the downside obj till 18165 then dragged down further till 18100 with spike to close at low.
Pointers from the day :
NF printed a large outside day..Clearing last 4days balance high and low in same session.Volume is quite higher at 104L against 10d average of 73L. Large inventory shift happened today.
After 3-1-3 outside day profile + composite balance from 3days, NF resolved higher yesterday. Due to lack of volume wanted to wait for another session to decide if they want to rally or just expanding the range of balance.Today's auction and volume confirmed they are expanding balance and upside rally is sealed now.
They have closed the gap at 18120 which was then initiative auction got ended with excess tail today at top.This excess could hold for few sessions. As mentioned in weekend report,18100-18080 zone good support to consider as lower end for the balance and no follow through below this band mean, could look for next few sessions in today's large outside day range to balance.
Below 18080, we have all poor structure profiles only till 17750-17700 which all got ditched with that 18120 gap inititiative move.So,if we accept below 18080 with value then could move towards 17980-17950/17850/17750 quick in few sessions.
It was clean spike down at close.Spike rules apply for next session. 18200-18100 spike zone..Sustain below spike = quite weak ; value in spike zone = weakness later in the day for range extension down ; Accept above spike = strength.
NF had a 45 degree move away from wide dPOC today. If sellers are committed, then they need to create value in spike zone/sustain below spike zone to bring value down to get follow through down further..Failing to do so, move back to POC zone could happen.
For next session, failing to stay below 18090 and accepting above 18130 could get 18165-18175/18200-18210. Above 18220 bullish for 18250/18275-18295. If sustains 18305 then 18335/18365-18385 possible.
If fails to sustain above 18170 and moves below 18130 then could get 18090-18080/18065 /18040/18015/17985. Quite weak below 17980 for 17950/17905-17885/17850-17835.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
Comentários