NF ended with spike down on Thursday after back to back neutral days and closing below composite dVAL on . Considered weak.Buyers not able accept above 18405 means liquidation expected towards 18310/18280/18240. NF had a rejection with open test drive down at open on Friday and gone for 18280 and below in first session then bounced to close at dVAH.
It was long liquidation auction and created value below 5days balance. As long as no acceptance above this profile next, expecting overlap to downskew.
NF accepted part of large gap between 18150-18320.Accepting below this b profile could look for more liquidation.
Clean composite higher above this profile..Acceptance above this profile could move back in 5days balance.
18300-18320 had shown some shift in auction while bouncing from b profile low..Buyers should defend this zone in next session and start moving higher towards 18380/18420 if sustains then 18465 and above possible..Sellers need to defend 18380 or worst case 18420 to test this 18320-18300 zone if gives up then PDL test and look below possible.
Swing short triggered at 18410 met first obj zone 18310-18280. Negation now moves to 18430 to look for 18240-18220 next and once gets there negation can be moved to 18370.
Weekly :
Last week ended as multi distribution profile with dPOC skew higher into close of the week.18340-18370 considered pivot for the week.Holding this pivot, probe was marked for 18565/18595 then pullback expected then below 18340 probe marked for 18280/18240. NF held pivot zone entire week but could not sustain higher above 18490 and last session of the week cleared 18340 and moved down towards 18250.
NF registered narrowest range of the week for the year..Two scenarios from here a) usually such narrow range week in November leads to further 3-4 weeks of similar slow auction narrow range weeks.. or b) this wide POC narrow range week becomes exhaustion top near ATH and we could accelearate down from here..
My bias is for scenario A..With 18220-18190 as pivot for coming week looking for overlap towards 18465-18495-18510 then again pullback down..Above 18535 could get higher towards 18650/18690 then come down.Weak below 18190 towards 18120/18060/17985 then should get bounce higher..Quite weak below 17985 towards 17850.
Monthly :
3months composite balance started getting range extension higher in Nov then had clean balance at start of the month.So, expected double/triple distribution month in Nov.It has printed double distribution profile as of now. With last session pullback, now we have clean equal distributions in Nov..As long as staying above 18190 looking for upper disbn overlap..Below 18190 means rotation down in lower distribution expecting with a move towards 18060/18000.
Upside looks capped considering low volume skewed composite of last week as of now unless they start the week with clean initiative move above 18500 to get third distribution which could take NF towards 18650-690 next.
18000 zone is solid support on monthly time frame and buyers in control till then..Large reversal possible on monthly time frame below 18000 acceptance.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Notes :
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