NF left failed auction at top on Wednesday and that FA got clean extn singles to negate Tuesday spike and brought down dPOC into close.Mean reversion down move was bias. Nf had a large gap down below swing obj zone 16380 and then bounced to remain as rotational profile all day then closed at dVAL.
Auction recap :
NF stopped one time frame up on daily time frame after 5days.Move down further or few sessions of balance is bias now than V shape rally higher again.
NF left a nice balanced profile with large buying tail. Though marginal IBH extn was there, it was almost normal day auction all day trading between IB range..Likely to get imbalance move in next session after such rotational normal day auction.
NF has closed weak at dVAL on lower value profile. Now, this FA at top got clean lower value follow through and lower value with close at dVAL. At the same time, we got clean buying tail at low which got defended all day till close. And,this tail has happned at large support zone which we expected to offer support on swing between 16335-16360 which was monthly extn handle zone..So, its nicely poised now between buyers and sellers and whoever gets follow through from this balanced profile should defend this balance and get momentum. Failing to get such momentum and back in this balanced profile value could travel to other side and also could extend further.
Swing short triggered at16555 swing short probed 16380 objective mentioned and its over now..Next short below 16350 for 16220-16160/16060 with 16500 negation. Longs can wait for another session or two to decide. Will update.
For next session, above 16485 could probe 16520/16545 if accepts then 16570-16590 probe possible. Quite bullish above 16600 for 16640/16680. If fails to sustain below 16420 and accepts back above 16460 then could test 16485/16520/16545.
If fails to sustain above 16500 and back below 16460 could test 16420/16390-16385 and quite weak below 16380 for 16350-16335/16300/16275/16240/16210.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
Last week had clean balance for all days and made a spike in last day via triple distribution day.Observation was that another poor form of range extension that one. Buyers to have another bullish week, expected hold above 16450 and go for higher value above this for entire week. Failing to create such value expected for overlap value week..
NF held 16450 and gone for higher value week in first half of the week..Above 16450 expected probe to 16620 then expected balance..NF gone to 16620 and then shot up little higher but could not hold and moved down towards close of week. Failure to sustain higher expected a move back to 16380-16350 which happened on mean reversion..Holding this zone expected a bounce to 16500 which also happened at last day of week and we closed at dVAL of the week..
It was two way imbalance week now with wide dPOC at 16560.. Failing to sustain below 16380, we could look for test of 16520 again if accepts then 16560-16580 zone probe possible to test that weekly POC and that zone is tough to accept on straight move..Could offer resistance to rotate down again towards 16450-16400. If accepts above 16600 then 16640-16680/16750 probe possible next. Quite bullish above 16750 for 16900-17100 to end the month.Below 16350 its weak for 16220-16160/16060/15950.
Monthly :
August is making imbalance up profile after two months of balance with 16360 zone as clean extn on monthly and that extn was marked as very important support which got retested and rejceted as of now..Till close of month, this should hold now for bullish case and should start making sideways to upside grind move above till 16560-16580 if accepts 16600 then 16750/16900-17100 objective further. Break of 16350 before close of month could travel to lower end of lower disbn of month 16160/16060-15950 and that move could be quicker via strong imbalance.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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