NF had a short covering profile with mechanical support from buyers pushing it higher to close at dVAH in last session. Observation was that buyers had edge at close and they should get drive/gap above selling tail to move into 19th value area.NF gone for this auction today right at open to clear 19th Value area high then got clean extension further above 19th VAH zone to get 3IB day. Hypo B played straight from 17235 to 17420+.
Pointers from today's auction :
NF had a 3IB double distribution trend day with dPOC skew higher at close. Technically edge with buyers and they should again defend today's upper disbn early in auction today and should seek drive higher or better gap to avoid repairing this DD profile.Context wise risk is on with long side and explained the same below.
Yesterday move was with mechanical push and now today's move again another emotional move due to following structure..
Day low weak at PDH zone.
DD profile with 3IB move inside large balance in making = emotional short term push (continuation of yday move and once that move is done if not done already today, could revert down quick).
DD upper disbn is wider and lengthier than lower distribution and both distribution got anomalies. ( we have seen such not equally distributed profile especially inside traded range many times and all the time it has given up quick i.e, filled back in following sessions).
Large extension singles inside old gap zone i.e, back to back LVN zone = odds higher for refill quicker.
Swing wise rally down was not expected and large balance was bias..Another session to confirm the same view. Upside expectation was to get 17350 zone or extreme case 17480-17520 band. Now, we got move higher above 17350 and max this could stretch to that 17480-17520 band then seek lower to mean to repair till 17350/17250 to start with then 17050-17000 zone.
If buyers of today's trend day are still committed then next they have to defend this 17350 zone and should get 17520 then next have to create value above 17520 to get 17650-17700 zone..Failing to do so, mean reversion as explained above.
Charts & data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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