NF had a short covering profile and 2days of nice bell balance closing above dVAH in last session.Observation was that buyers had edge at close and with evidence of large inventory shift both days,buyers were trying to pull it up. NF today got a clean gap up then printed large buying tail to almost have a trend day but by close ended as short covering profile with close below dPOC.
Second day of short covering profile and stopped 11 days of one time frame down.
NF negated part of imbalance move done on 16th trend day.
Back to back to short covering profile - weakening the structure..
It was almost a trend day but last hour liquidation negated trend day and that left quite a poor value area.
All above info suggesting we might get back to balance..
We had a dPOC skew higher and closed well below it...So, buyers to avoid poor value area repair and want to follow through higher means then as discussed in commentary, either they should get gap up or open near PDH and get open drive higher..Failing to do so and accepts back in value area means higher odds for repairing poor value area.
Larger context expected rotation down from 15480-550 band or from 15700-15750 zone if we get a rally..NF tested 15700 zone and got some rejection today..Structure wise (weekly) as well as today's auction suggesting, we are going to have large balance or skew down only once this bounce is done..To negate this view, they need to clear 15750 and build value higher to look for 15900-950/16050..Failing to get such higher value above 15750 or once accepted above 15750 and then moving down below 15650 could call for probe down towards 15570/15510/15450/15380.
Charts & data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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