NF had a neutral extreme down day in last session and observation was that edge with sellers/against buyers at close with auction incomplete on downside.Was looking for follow through downside to clear weak low we were talking about around 17080. NF had a large gap down and held the gap and gone for all day lower value day then closed at dVAH.
Pointers from today's auction :
Clean gap down and lower value day. This lower value almost filled 19/04 large buying tail zone. This is weakness swing wise.
3-1-3 profile with clean tail both at both ends and nice balance in between tails.Sustain tail = trend ; failing to do so value area probe back.
Double print tail at low and closed at dVAH..These buyers should defend value area and should go for move higher next..Usually double print tails do not hold for more sessions..So, with swing showing weakness with value in large tail zone and this double print tail at low, any rally higher could be only temporary relief for inventory adjustment and to close the gap of today.Then could rotate down again..Value above 17300 negates this view.Thats swing res now 17250-17300 zone.
Swing view of mean reversion to 17000 done now.Roughly 16900-17500 zone kept as ref for tossing between to form a balance and today we got a bounce from lower end.Considering weekly in one time frame down + monthly in double distribution down + today's value in 19/04 tail zone, as said above any move higher might face stiff res in 17250-17300 zone or even before that..So till we start accepting this 17250-17300 band with value not interested in swing long view.
If buyers want to save this expiry then no more visit below 16875 and should rally to 17250-17300 and might decide there to rotate down again or move higher for 17500 zone..If we visit below 16875 next time then could open down for 16650/16550/16400.
Charts & data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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