NF confirmed excess at top with lower value day in Thursday auction. Expected this FA at top to get downside move further breaking 16570. NF could not get this move instead gone to negate excess and closed with poor high. Failing to sustain below 16595 and back above 16640 probe was marked for 16670/16690 then above 16695 expected 16720/16745. NF gone for this move all day marking high at 16730.
Pointers from the day :
NF left a buying tail which managed to clear previous session failed auction at top.This is important information as that excess not even able to hold for more than a day. Extension handle zone 16650-16670 from this auction now becomes good swing support for buyers.
NF printed poor high at top and got no secured high. Auction incomplete at top. With close at dPOC on almost a trend day post IB period, buyers could go for getting secured auction above this poor high.
Swing longs from 16645 got negated with mild swipe below negation 16580 to stop it but later gone for first obj 16720. Context wise swing is still on long side as no acceptance happened below 16570. Shorts now only below 16650 with 16750 negation.Will update further in coming sessions on fresh swing trade.
For next session, above 16745 could probe 16765/16790 if sustains above 16810 then 16845-16865/16890 probe possible.
If fails to sustain above 16750 and back below 16710 could probe 16670-16650 if sustains then 16625/16590-16575 probe possible.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
It was two way imbalance week in previous week auction with wide dPOC at 16560.. Observation was that move to that wide dPOC zone 16560-16580 tough to accept straight and expected to rotate back to 16400 zone..Week this week opened and rejected in this 16560-16580 and came down to 16400. Failing to sustain below 16380, expected test of 16520 again if accepts then 16560-16580 zone was probe then above 16600 expected 16640-16680/16750. NF after taking support around 16400 gone for this move towards 16680-16750 to close the week.
NF has now printed overlap value week with poor high. To avoid rotation back in these two overlap week range, buyers should go for early follow through in the week higher else mean reversion down move possible. So, 16670-16710 support zone and holding this NF could move towards 16790/16850/16890/16950. With current volume, not expecting anything above 16890-16950 band as of now. If we get volume on rally + sustains 16950 then could move towards 17100/17250 next.
Failing to sustain above 16890 could drop back to 16790/16730-16710 and that should offer support to rotate higher again.
Weakness below 16650 for 16550-16500 if this band goes then 16420-16390 and quite weak below 16350 for 16180.
Monthly :
August has confirmed making imbalance up profile after two months of balance.With 16360 zone as clean extn on monthly considered that as very important support which got retested and rejceted.Expected that zone to hold for bullish case for month which is happening sofar. Above 16600 probe was marked for 16750/16900-17100 and still same view with current structure of elongated monthly profile. Weakness on monthly only below 16350 for lower end of lower disbn of month 16160/16060-15950.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
Comments