Observations from previous session Vs today's auction + recap of the day :
NF had left a probable excess at top with VAL probe in last session and break of 15825 in next session was required to confirm this excess - NF did this today and excess at top 15910-15930 confirmed now.
It was clear case of buyers failure yesterday and expected more liquidation below last session thick b profile - NF printed another long liquidation thick b profile.
Context wise based on previous daily auction as well as inside weekly profile , buyers were supposed to start a fresh leg above 15900 which they failed. Wanted to wait for another day if demand kicks in else considered path of least resistance downside - NF resolved further down today.
Now, we have excess at top + two back to back long liquidation profiles. In general, long liquidation of small time frame in ongoing large time frame strong trend leads to further strength i.e, its way of clearing weak hands before actual move to take place..So,now with this two back to back long liquidation profiles and secured low from the day, if buyers want to show strength then they need to defend 15770-15750 band then first probe 15860 then build value higher to take out 15910 for strong rally in coming sessions..
If they fail to do so at higher levels and breaks 15770-15750 band then another sharp liquidation could take place.So, its now fight between excess at top + secured low of today 15750 zone which is also from the zone of strong support as mentioned in weekend report based on 24th profile extension handle.
Considering monthly is in nice balance + above said factor, if we open inside range/value then we may have volatile two way auction between this 15860-15750 zone before resolving, on a last day of month for a close.
Swing long from 15800 after meeting first obj 15900 today got stopped at trail 15820. And gone for sell at 15820 with obj of 15750/15690/15600 probe..Missed a first obj marginally and negation same 15900 as mentioned yesterday. Once we move below 15770 again tomorrow could trail the negation to 15860.
For next session, 15770-15750 support if holds then could test 15810/15825 and bullish above 15825 for 15850-15860 if sustains then 15880/15905-15920 probe possible. Above 15920 could get 15950-15960/15990-16020
If fails to sustain above 15860 and accepts below 15820 then could test 15790/15765 and weak below it for 15730/15700-15690 and quite weak below 15680 for 15650-15635.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.
Notes :
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