NF had a large selling tail and got clean trend day at close at Thursaday with sellers in full control.It has cleared last swing low 17985 and observation was that minimum test of 17750 possible further. NF had wild ope auction which cleared much below 17750 during IB then gone for all day two way auction and then settled below dPOC.
Pointers from the day :
NF had a neurtal day auction i.e, not able to sustain beyond IB range and traded with two way auction. Neutral days at new range are sign of new auction to emerge i.e, end of old auction and start of new auction. Considering current daily and weekly structure it could be either
a) fresh leg down or
b) large balance as we just had two way quick moves in between 17850 and 18590 in short time.
My bias for option b.
NF had a selling tail as well as buying tail and this buying tail got ledge too.
Both sellers and buyers had a fight all day to control auction with quite a higher volume for the day.Though NF closed below dPOC, my observation is that buyers were trying to defend the auction at close by printing ledge at tail zone..Despite few attempts they saved IB zone after a small breach and left this ledge and had a small bounce into close.
Profile structure and this tail with ledge suggesting to lean on the observation that buyers in defense. To get confirmation on this bias, buyers should defend 17680-17720 zone then need to clear 17780-17810 zone in next session and then should comfortably trade above this zone.If this happens buyers could see follow through higher.
As mentioned in commentary, this profile got unfinished job till 17900 zone and in second half sellers had a nice control pushing the price down below VWAP without allowing the probe back to 17900..Once 17810 accepted, we could easily look for this probe to fill the profile till 17900-17930 zone.
If this tail with ledge goes i.e, 17720-17680 zone not able to hold the auction and gives up means fresh leg down for another 100-150 points towards 17580/17500-17450 possible.
3rd day of one time frame down ended with neutral day..So, its sellers job to defend 17780-17810 zone and move below 17680 to get follow through..If this doesnt happen then we could look for ease of pressure from sellers.
For next session, above 17780 could test 17810/17830-17840 if sutains then 17890-17910/17935 probe possible then could rotate down. Further bullish above 17965 for 17990/18020/18050/18090-18110/18150.
Failing to sustain above 17810 and back below 17750 could test 17720/17690 and weak below 17670 for 17635-17620/17580-17560. If fails to sustain above 17900 and back below 17820 could test 17780/17750/17720/17690.
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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