NF had 3-1-3 profile in last session and got a gap down open below buying tail. Below tail was considered weak. Below 14870 considered weak for 14720 and below and NF stayed below 14870 all session after open and gone for this down probe and ended with spike down.
Auction recap :
NF stopped one time frame up after 5 days.
Supply was keen all day with ledge at 14865 which gone for spike down into close.
14740-14660 spike zone and spike rules in focus for next session. stay below spike = quite weak ; accept in spike zone with value = weakness later ; accept above spike = bullish.
NF negated 28th low volume DD trend day..I have shared earlier that when we have weak back to back trend days and once second trend day negates, then odds are higher for negation of first trend day too..So, odds are higher now for negation of 27th low volume low conviction trend day move too with a move to 14540. As mentioned in commentary, break of 14790 opened up a move for 14640/14540.
Swing wise mentioned that weakness below 14790 move was for 14650 and NF almost got that. Yesterday auction with ledge + spike down close suggests more on downside possible.Swing down is the bias now with negation at 14780.
Price wise for next session, staying below 14690 could get 14640/14615/14570/14540/14490. Quite weak below 14490 for 14450/14420-14390/14360/14325.
Above 14715 could test 14745/14770 and bullish above 14785 for 14815/14850/14880.
Larger picture :
Weekly :
NF had a lower value in previous week with excess tail at low. Holding 14200 probe was for 14520 and considered quite bullish above 14520 for 14810. NF gone much higher till 15035 current week.
Current week had a upmove with many weak ref and low volume days and now negated DD trend day into close of the week. Now staying below 14780 probe is for 14540-14490 and that should hold. Below 14490 we have nice balanced weekly profile which could be probed quick till 14350/14250-14220 and quite weak below 14220 for 14050/13950.
If holds around 14490 then could bounce back to 14650/14780 and bullish above 14780 for 14950.
Monthly :
FEB-APR now got overlap profiles on monthly and Apr has ended with lower value overlap. Staying below 14900 probe is for 14490-14440 and this should hold for bounce else looking for 13950 in first half of May. Reveral any now possible only above 14900. Will cover more on monthly structure in coming weeks.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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