NF printed second day of long liquidation profile in last session. With back to back long liquidation profiles + secured low in last session, if buyers want to move higher then expected them to defend 15770 to move higher then next expected them to build value higher above 15860. If they fail to do so then expected another liquidation. NF held around 15790 at open and started moving up via imbalance in IB period.
Holding 15770 expected test of 15825 then 15860 if sustains then expected 15880-15905. NF via ABCD imbalance made a move till 15876 and then gone into tight balance. Failing to sustain above 15860 and acceptance below 15820 expected to probe 15765 then 15730 and this happened in second session to close with spike down.
Pointers from the day :
NF shown clear exhaustion in that upper tight balance today around PDH zone and gone for PDL break..Outside day..If sustains this profile = trend down else overlap in outside day profile for next session, to repair the poor value area it has left due to second session imbalance down auction.
NF printed neutral extreme down profile with spike close. Spike rules in focus for next session.
15790-15740 spike zone.
Accept below = quite weak ;
value in spike zone = weakness later in the day ;
Accept above spike zone = strength.
That excess at top still ruling and violated today important support zone of 15750..If sustains 15700 next then more liquidation to follow as that negates buying tail of 24th double disbn trend day.If that tail zone defends and pushes back above today's spike then odds are higher for retest of excess at top in coming sessions.
Price has moved 45 degree away from wide POC at top hence its important for NF to accept in spike zone and bring down the value,then get follow through further down, else mean reversion could happen to POC.
Swing sell at 15820 met its first obj 15750 today and remaining obj are 15690/15600 and negation now moves to 15825..Now could consider swing buy above 15825 with 15720 negation for 15890/15950/16020.
For next session, 15790-15810 resistance. If fails to sustain above this and breaking 15760 could test 15730/15700-15690 and quite weak below 15680 for 15650-15635 if sustains then 15595-15580/15550-15530 probe possible.
Failing to sutain below 15720 and back above 15790 could get 15825 and bullish above 15825 for 15855/15880-15905 and above 15920 could get 15950-15960/15990-16020.
Charts and data :
Monthly charts :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.
Notes :
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