NF closed at dVAH after second day of one time frame up with advantage buyers on Thu..They expected to get drive or gap up to move further higher..NF instead opened at PDL and gone for narrow range day between last session VAL and PDL and then closed below dPOC.
One of weird auction from NF in this entire composite of Feb balance happened on Friday..They defended PDL and then morning tail with all the effort but could not sustain higher above IBH and remained as narrow range day till close.The way they defended morning tail zone all session should have pushed higher easy which they failed. Quite weak supports at lower quad of the day now making long side risky.
Buyers now need to get gap / drive to move higher and once done should not move back into day's value area next session but look for higher value area and range extension higher.
As mentioned in commentary, invenontary seems trapped buyers all day..So, any failure from buyers to get follow through higher could lead to liquidation in next session.
Levels wise, hold 17850 and push above 17890 to get 17920/17950-17965 if sustains good move possible towards 18010/18050/18100. Failing to sustain higher above 17950 could drop to 17900/17860-17850 and weak below that for 17820/17780/17750/17700.
Swing support mentioned in last report that moves to 17860 which got negated now..Considering mechanical support from buyers in last session, not good now to remain with bullish view.. Odds are there to move down to 17780/17750 as long as no acceptance above 17950 again.
Weekly :
Weekly after 5 weeks of balance resolved with multi distribution profile downside last week. And printed 9th week of one time frame down. Mentioned that wide POC at 17680 hence 17650-17700 solid support for the week..Holding below 17950, weekly expected to go for retest of 17700-17650 then possible for bounce from there. This has happened this week at start i.e, moved down and bounced from 17700. And the bounce expected to look higher above 17950 for more bullishness which got denied with only secured high above 17950 now.
Inside week with bell balance now.Daily range and volume of last few sessions suggesting upside is capped.Unless we see any good initiative move at start of the week, expecting mean reversion again for the current week then continue balance and go to other end of Feb balance.
So, 17950 still same resistance for current week. 17840 support to start the week. Buyers need to hold this and test 17950 and accepts means could look for move higher towards 18040/18100/18200-18250. Failing to do so early in the week looking for move back to 17780/17720/17680-17650 which should hold and bounce. If sustains 17650 solid weakness for further move down towards 17550/17490-17450/17325/17200/17050.
Monthly :
NF made a move till 17475 and started balancing at start of Feb. Holding below 17950 expectation was to continue this balance on monthly and NF on Feb just tested above 17950 only to leave tail and still balancing on monthly..Developing month now closed with dPOC skew higher.Hence, not getting any range extn higher quick early in next week above 17950 looking for balance to conintue in 17950-17650 range for Feb month and sustaining higher is for 18100/18200/18350.
Feb could become weak if sustains below 17650 for a probe towards 17450/17325/17200/17050.If another week on Feb goes for balance then odds are quite higher for last week of Feb to get imbalance auction.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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