NF had a double disbn profile on 12th and closed extn handle by close..To get more follow through buyers expected to defend 17820 and move higher accepting in upper disbn. They did so at open on 13th but failed to sustain above upper disbn and started accepting below 17820 in first session..Below 17820 probe was 17780/17745-17735 and NF got 17775 swiping PDL but could not sustain and then for close moved back to PDH to close at high.
Neutral extreme up day and outside day.
They swiped PDL just marginally and got buying tail then gone for PDH so one time frame up on daily still intact now with 9th day of one time frame up.
Sellers got a good chance in last session to get clean stopping of one time frame up auction but they failed badly..So, next session decider if such outside day move is going for start of next leg upside or just expiry adjustment and we are going to stop one time frame up and getting mean reversion move..Inventory at close was not great with buyers so they need some kind of initiative move early at session to get upside momentum.
2days of nice balance now and likely to get imbalance session next. Being neurtal extreme day, VWAP ref for next session..So, same 17820-17835 buyers need to defend and sustain higher for more upside..Weak below 17820.
Levels wise for next session, failing to stay below 17830-17820 and moving above 17865 could get 17890 and further bullish above this for 17925-17940/17970-17980/18020-18040. Below 17820 could get 17790-17780/17745-17735/17690-17680 and more.
Swing short below 17790 got triggered and negation also done by close at 17890.Back to neutral view in swing.Till 17745 gets repaired, prefer not to look for swing long view.
Weekly :
Weekly suggested advantage buyers as long as they stay above 17600 and early in the week they needed to survive above 17700 with value to conitnue the momentum up.They managed to hold above 17600 and got push higher to probe upside obj 17840 then stayed in balance for two days. Short covering profile on weekly now.
17775 support for the week and need early acceptance in the week above last week high to move towards 17980/18040 then could look for pullback from there. Move below 17775 could move towards 17690/17650-17620 which is good zone to bounce back to 17750-17780 and above. More weakness if 17600 gives up which could get 17500-17450.
Monthly :
Monthly sofar trending one way and 17600-17650 solid support.Two scenarios for monthly from here a) exhaust around last week high without much of push higher and turn into P on monthly with a move back to 17650-17600/17500 then bounce back. or b) make one more leg towards 17980/18040 then get such pullback towards 17780/17650. Major weakness for the month only below 17450.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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