NF printed Outside + Neutral extreme down day with FA at top on Thursday with close at low suggesting weakness.Expectation was to get 18660 minimum staying below 18810-18830.But, NF opened higher straight above VWAP of such weak close NE down day tilting the odds..Above 18830 marked for 18870/18910/18940. NF sustained the open with good volume with tail at low then gone for clean extension higher till 18955 then closed at dPOC.
NF negated FA 18867 at top and got range extn higher above outside day with clean extn singles with volume.18840 good support for this extn now and 18820 solid ref to negate this bullish extension and revert to balance..As long as we stay above 18800, buyers could take further control from here.
Buying tail and almost a 3IB day with spike..Could not close in spike and closed below it..So, focus for next session to sustain higher above spike zone 18905.Failing to do so some balance possible first to fill imbalance zone above 18850 then later could get range extn higher.Weakness only below 18840.
Levels wise for next session, failing to stay below 18850 and move above 18880 could get 18910 bullish above that for 18940/18975-18985 if sustains 19020-19040 possible. Not able stay above 18940 and move below 18900 could test 18870/18845 and weak below 18840 for 18810/18780-18775 if sustains 18745/18720-18705 possible.
Weekly :
NF closed at VAL of balanced profile last week.Sellers needed to act early in the week with such close else mean reversion in bell profile was expected.18690-18720 marked as res to start the week..Holding this band expected sellers to get follow through downside towards 18560/18520-18480 then bounce expected. NF started the week respecting this band but able to get only till 18625 then bounced. Acceptance above 18720 expected to get slow skew towards 18790-18810 zone to reject and then later sustains means 18890/18940 was marked for probe..NF whipped around 18810 with a move to 18840-18860 then moving way down and later sustained above 18810 towards end of week to clear till 18940 and closed above dVAH of the week now.
Two week of balance got clean range extension higher now. 18840-18820 support now for the week to balance and skew higher..First probe is towards 19020-19050 zone either straight there then balance or balance then get there..Later if sustains above 19050 then 19150-19200/19300 probe possible.Failing to stay above 18940 and move below 18820 could get 18720-18705 zone then should see bounce..If 18700 goes then reversal on weekly time frame towards 18625/18550 and more.
Monthly :
With close at 18625 VAL of two weeks balance suggested uptrend monthly view is negated..If 18620 not taken out earlier in the week then retest of 18810 zone then rejection expected and bias was 18840 not to be cleared and expected balance to down auction for the month..Till Friday this was working i.e, defending 18620 and whipping 18840 and moving down etc but Friday has given clear extension for the month now.
Good consolidation from 3 weeks of June now got upside range extn.They should go for more upside now holding 18700 in June towards 19050/19150-1920/19300..If 18700 goes means back to balance view.18500 break calls for reversal in monthly time frame as of now.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
Commentaires