NF printed outside day and neutral extreme down day on thursday. It was advantage sellers considering dPOC down skew and was looking for gap/drive down..17120-17130 marked as ref for sellers and holding that probe was marked for 17050/17020/16985/16950..They got open drive to tag below 17020 then balanced in first session but could not clear 17120 and later gone for spike down to clear remaining downside obj 16985/16950 and closed at low..
Left poor high FA at top and another neutral extreme down day.
Back to back NE down day with advantage sellers again at close..They need to defend spike zone and go for drive down or get gap down for follow through further..Price moved 45 degree away from wide POC..Failing to get follow through from spike could push price back to POC then decide there next course of auction in next session.
17010-16975-16935 spike zone..Stay in/below spike = weakness else squeeze for overlap in value area.
That unfinished job of 16940 zone from 20/03 taken care with a repair now with probe there.
For next session levels wise, 17010-17020 res zone..Sellers holding this and moving below 16960 could get 16920/16880/16830/16765/16725. Above 17020 could test 17060/17090 if sustains 17140/17170-17190/17240 possible. Failing to accept above 17090 and below 16975 could end up in balanced session.
Swing wise mentioned 17170-17185 as solid resistance to look for downmove towards 17050/16985/16920. This is done now..Swing res now moves to 17090.Holding below this view is sideways to downside. Above 17090 could move to 17170/17240/17280/17330 with negation of 16950.
Weekly :
NF weekly delivered overlap week into last week clean b profile..Could not sustain below that b profile and gone for overlap..17090 pivot for the week and holding below early in the week should look for follow through down below 16900 for imbalance down week towards 16820/16735/16660/16450/16200. Failing to do so, could do mean reversion for 17170/17240/17280/17330/17370/17450.
This mean reversion may not be straight but could be done via 2-3 session up and down. Context here is more and more b profile gets flat bottom, higher the odds to revert to dPOC/dVAH/tail of that profile.So, its important for sellers to clear this b profile weekly low zone 16900 earlier in the week and sustain below it.
Reversal on weekly if sustains 17450 with value for 17550/17640/17740-17760.
Monthly :
Monthly from dd down turning into b profile into close of month..they need to go for 3rd disbn or spike down for March close with this structure staying below 17170.. If that is not happening and 17170 accepts means could end as b profile for March. Levels same as marked above in weekly for remaining days of March. Any reversal on monthly time frame only above 17850. Till then bias on monthly time frame is for more range extn down only, if not in March then could continue in Apr as long as no acceptance above 17850.
Charts :
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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